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As I mentioned last week , 1.1460 hold as a great resistance , and the pair couldn’t get close above downward trend line , as far as it hold below 1.1460 area it will be bearish . There is confluences of resistance in this area , and i don’t think that it breaks so easily. if we take a look at fundamentals , USD acting strongly in the market by increasing overnight rate at the exact point , on the other hand EUR not increasing rates until summer 2019 . so that would be a bearish signal for now until one side decide reversely. when we take look at recent news , it shows a meaningful downtrend in EUR PMIs that would confirm the scenario. for the next week I expect to see a downward continuation toward 1.1165 for the first target and 1.1000 as second one. if it breaks 1.1460 it may reverse from here.
as we discuss this pair last week , Buyers couldn’t hold 1.2700 area and make a new low for GBPUSD. as we can see traders rejected 1.2686 area as new resistance . as far as it stays below 1.2686 it will going down. first target would be the new low at 1.2480 and 1.2420 is next, if it couldn’t hold there is another 300 pip to go down. Be careful around trading GBP pairs .
During last week USDJPY hit the top trend line again and rejected. I entered small shorts, but waiting for a confirmed break out during the next week. nothing more to say about technical view, everything is completely obvious. as I mentioned before we got USD rate rising this week, it has already been priced I think and not much room left for more, but the next year plan for rising US rates may unveil and make massive moves in the market. usually i don’t trade during banks press conference or trade with smaller lot size than usual. we need to wait and see which way going to break.
USDCAD still trading in the channel . dropping oil price preventing Canadian dollar to gain the momentum during last weeks. There is a saying in the market , ” Even a dead cat bounce when it drops from the high” , I really believe in this. and oil price need to trade higher before going lower. but We have FOMC meeting on board and we need to see the results.
AUDUSD rejected from 0.7250 area and moving through 0.7127 and 0.7070 to hold still . if it breaks the trend line again , it will make a fake break out , on the other hand any kind of rejection from this area may lead us to the bulls. some times just watching the market needed, and make you better opportunities, sit tight till the FOMC decision and then trade with open eyes.