CAD Fundamental Analysis (March-2019)

Weekly Forex Forecast (February 4– February 8, 2019)
February 3, 2019

CAD Fundamental Analysis (March-2019)

Important: I use New York close charts so that each 24-hour period closes at 5 pm EST.

Click here to get access to the same charts I use.

If you want to take look at fundamental analysis , you need to see the economic data as the central bank’s chairman perspective. It will help you to see the big picture of the economy exactly as they watch and decide. Here we take look at some information that we could reach easily on the internet.

 

GDP

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health; Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy;

It is very common to see negative numbers on GDP in winter, but as you can see overall numbers are positive, and in the coming season we will see growth and more expand in the Canadian economy.

 

Employment Change

Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts.

Getting more people employed is always a good sign of healthy economy. During last two years Canadians find their jobs easier than before

You can see unemployment rate too this is the lowest number for a while.

CPI

 

Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. This is the most important inflation-related release due to its earliness and broad scope. This is among the few non-seasonally adjusted numbers reported on the calendar, as it’s the calculation most commonly reported.

This is getting a habit to see inflation decrease at the first month of every year. So central bank’s chairman will notice that. Moreover you can see around 2 percent increase every year. It’s a positive number for an economic expansion.

 

Overnight Rate

 

Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future. The rate decision is usually priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the BOC Rate Statement, which is focused on the future.

From 2017 till now we have 5 rate increase that shows the CAD is getting Stronger.

In conclusion , we have the big picture of the market, GDP is aright according to the season, employment is in a good direction, CPI has its own tolerance but totally in a good shape, overnight rate is on an increasing trend, so what else would be considered as a negative sign for tonight’s sentiment. We can conclude that the chairman would speak hawkish, and I’m even waiting to see this year rate rising program. Today candle stick close would show us the market direction for the next two months.

 

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